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November 4, 2020
*Updates and results included below were updated at 3:30 p.m. EST.
The big story of the night is that we do not have a winner in the presidential election yet. Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania are too close or too early to call at this time, while projected contests in Wisconsin and Arizona seem to favor Vice President Joe Biden, which would give him a 248-214 lead in the race towards the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the presidency.
In addition, some news outlets are waiting for additional ballots from Alaska before calling Electoral College votes. Key to President Trump’s stronger-than-expected showing in the election were critical wins in Florida, Ohio and Texas, which were targeted by Democrats in their bid for the White House. If the projections hold and Biden has been able to flip Wisconsin and Arizona for Democrats, it makes Trump’s path to victory tougher than in 2016.
Currently, President Trump leads in votes counted from Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania (worth 51 Electoral College votes), while former Vice President Biden has the edge in Arizona, Nevada, Michigan and Wisconsin (worth 43 votes), and it could take additional days or even into next week to finish counting their votes.
There are several pathways to victory for both sides, and although Biden could reach 270 if he maintains his current leads, Pennsylvania holds the largest number of Electoral College votes for these key states, at 20. While the president held an 11-point lead this morning, it has decreased throughout the day to a less than 7-point lead as the state started to count approximately 1.4 million absentee votes, not including ballots that could arrive ahead of the Nov. 6 deadline for returning mail-in, absentee ballots. Biden has won absentee ballots in Pennsylvania by a margin of 78% to 21%, and if he is able to maintain this trend, it would net him enough votes to pull ahead in the state.
While Democrats were also hoping to pull out a Senate majority on election night, the chances of them netting the seats needed to do so has dwindled, with five races still uncalled. Democrats were only able to increase their Senate caucus number by one so far, with wins against incumbents Sen. Martha McSally (R-Ariz.) and Sen. Cory Gardner (R-Colo.) but Sen. Doug Jones (D-Ala.) losing to Republican Tommy Tuberville. Democrats also failed to oust Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), and early this afternoon Democrat Sara Gideon conceded to Susan Collins in Maine. Democrats fell short in long-shot bids to challenge Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell in Kentucky, Sen. Lindsey Graham in South Carolina, Sen. John Cornyn in Texas and a few other seats.
In races still undecided, Republican Senators Thom Tillis of North Carolina and David Perdue of Georgia are maintaining leads; and if Perdue obtains 50% of the vote, he avoids a run-off election. Also in Georgia, following a special election, Republican Kelly Loeffler will head to a January run-off election against Democrat Raphael Warnock.
In Michigan, Republican challenger John James currently trails Democratic incumbent Gary Peters by fewer than 1,200 votes, and Republican Dan Sullivan is expected to win reelection in Alaska. If things play out as expected, Democrats would have to carry Michigan, force another Georgia run-off election against Perdue and win both Georgia Senate seats in order to win a majority in the Senate.
While Democrats will maintain control of the U.S. House, Republicans are likely to gain seats in the lower chamber, increasing their caucus numbers slightly, with several competitive races across the country too close to call. So far, Democrats have only been able to flip two open House seats in North Carolina, due largely to court-ordered redistricting, falling short in their expectations of unseating a number of GOP incumbents, particularly in Ohio and Texas. Read on for a list of key Republican seat flips and GOP and Democrat holds for the 2020 elections.
Republicans continued to exceed expectations at the state level as the vaunted Democratic Blue Wave fizzled despite aggressive strategies and record spending by state political groups focused on flipping state legislative chambers. State legislative chamber and party trifecta victories are crucial, because the winners will have a greater role in congressional and state redistricting following the 2020 census, which both parties hoped to control to build an electoral advantage for the next decade.
In the 11 governor races, just one state changed party hands. Montana’s at-large Rep. Greg Gianforte (R) was elected the state’s new governor in an open race, replacing term-limited Gov. Steve Bullock (D), giving Republicans a new state party trifecta. Of note, incumbent Republican Govs. Chris Sununu (N.H.) and Phil Scott (Vt.) were re-elected in blue states. In North Carolina, incumbent Gov. Roy Cooper (D) won re-election, while Republican Mark Robinson will be North Carolina’s first black lieutenant governor.
In state legislatures, it appears Republicans will hold or increase their majorities in several key chambers, including the Michigan House, Texas House and both chambers in Florida, Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Republicans are projected to win a few seats in the New York Senate, preventing Democrats from gaining a supermajority.
In West Virginia, Republicans held and strengthened their supermajority, adding seats in the state house. In New Hampshire, Republicans gained control of the Senate and may flip the House when all ballots are counted, giving the GOP another trifecta. The Alaska House may also flip, which would result in another GOP state party trifecta.
As expected, election results across the country will trickle in over the coming days. A list tracking key U.S. Senate and House races that have been called is below. Please join the ABC National team tomorrow, Thursday, Nov. 5, at 3 p.m. ET, for a post-election briefing. Registration is now open.
U.S. Senate Tracker
GOP Flips (1)
Republican Holds (6)
Democratic Flips (2)
U.S. Representative Tracker (updated 11 a.m. EST)
Republican Flips (7)
Remaining Called Races
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